MarketBook 4/23/08

In investing and trading, like anything else, activity ebbs and flows with different times.  Sometimes it is best to have less activity and just hold your positions, hopefully watching them increase daily and/or weekly.  This market does not represent one of those times, in my opinion.

As per my previous entry, I chose to almost completely eliminate my positions that I have been in with both of my primary accounts for weeks now, and in some cases months. I have had good gains and I have been growing more and more concerned that they would not last, based on the make-up of my positions.  As a result, I have moved to a more changing strategy, taking short-term (i.e., day) positions, moving on strategic plays, especially with this being the heat of earnings seasons. 

I have been making earnings plays on equities that I would ordinarily not spend my time buying and selling, and especially not holding long term, because I am just not a big fan of the typical “blue chips” and other power house stocks in today’s markets.  However, in the last two weeks, I have been able to take gains from the earnings of GOOG, TXN, and now hopefully Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) tomorrow.

Apple reported great earnings today, and the green waves started to flow; however, when analysts started discussing Q3 forecasts, the numbers started to pull-back and it actually ended after hours trading down.  I am confident we will see rises tomorrow as the market opens, baring any significant declines or negative news between now and then, which of course is not completely out of the question.  Apple is a stock that should move higher though.

On the docket for tomorrow is Microsoft’s earnings report, and everyone and their dog appears to be comfortable that Gates’ folks should crush the expectations.  I am hoping so, enough that I purchased a considerable amount of shares in after hours trading today.  I do think, however, that if we see rises to the mid-30’s, we will see considerable sell-offs, followed by returns to the high-20’s/low-30’s. 

Some other plays I made today were YPF, TOT and PTR, the latter of which is Petro China that had a huge short-term break today.  I sold PTR off as it came back down today, but not before I saw considerable gains.  These three positions were examples of my move to holding short-term energy related equities; however, I am strongly considering getting back into longer holds following indices with either IEO or IEZ.

Also on the watch tomorrow is Eni SPA (E), the Italian energy operator with operations in South America and Asia, which appears to be very cheap and competitive within their markets.  I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen from the company so far; however, we’ll see how earnings look tomorrow and go from there.  Here is a brief write-up on good energy plays from SeekingAlpha, which mentions Eni.   


One Comment

  1. Posted August 22, 2008 at 5:53 am | Permalink | Reply


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