MarketBook 3/27/08

After my big gains from last week’s options expirations, as well as my nice gains from my global funds that were invested in the euro, I have been working on redeveloping my portfolio strategy. 

I already pointed out that my play to short oil has panned out well, albeit, sooner than I expected.  Could there be more drops in oil?  It’s definitely possible, but I think we’re moving up in that area for the foreseeable future.  As a result, I am focusing on certain energy ETF’s including USO and OIL, as well as some ancillary energy funds, such as IEZ, IEO and others. 

Another forward looking strategy (not really, but that’s what I’ll call it) is emerging markets.  I have been watching Africa and Asia for a while now and am getting to a point where I am ready to move on this.  I am currently considering EZA, as well as GAF, and a number of other global ETF’s that focus on Africa, Asia and the Middle East. 

Aside from this, I am still doing research on some fixed income long plays, but as I have said before, I typically put a lot more time into these and there’s no reason to rush this. 

Other than that, a large portion of my money is in cash right now, until I get a better idea as to what is going to happen in the summer.  I actually believe Bernanke, Larry Summers and others when they say that we’re looking at a short term recession, and the rebound from the credit crisis should be full swing by the end of this year.  That timeframe may be a little ambitious, but overall, I have confidence in the market. 

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