Did I call it, or what?

Last night, Hillary Clinton came back with big wins in Ohio and Texas.  I have spent the last three weeks hearing about how Hillary is done and how Obama will be turning out young people, in addition to taking away Hillary’s support in Hispanic and female voters. 

I will refer you to Bill Schneider’s analysis breaking down Hillary’s voter support from last night in Texas and Ohio.  Here are the highlights:

  • Latino voters went for Hillary over Obama by 35 points
  • Hillary got more of the women vote
  • Seniors went for Hillary almost by 50 points
  • Hillary also won on the economy (#1 domestic policy issue)
  • Hillary swung late deciders (i.e., undecideds in the pre-primary polling)

Finally, and this is my best “I told you so” point of today … all of those young people that supposedly are going to turn out in record numbers and win it for Obama represented a whopping 7% of the vote. 

Let me say something (I have been saying this for a long time) here, young people WILL NOT turn out to vote, at least not enough to decide any election.  Every cycle the media reports that turnout among young voters (18-24 years old) is expected to be the highest ever.  Further, Obama supporters claim that his overwhelming support from this voter demographic is historical and could be the key factor to his success. 

It isn’t going to happen people.  Every election, turnout among young voters is in the 5-7% range (when there is a presidential election) and lower when there is not a national election at hand.  This year will be no different, regardless of Obama’s pie in the sky “revolution.”

Why, you ask?  Simple:  young voters who find themselves wildly supporting a candidate on forums such as MySpace and Facebook typically end up having something better to do on the Election Day.  They are crazy about a candidate the entire year and talk ad nauseum about how we need to elect this person.  They join Facebook groups in support of the campaign and discuss it with friends at dinner.  However, when it comes right down to end, the far majority of these young voters find themselves on the second Tuesday of November (or their state primary day) and they become very tired, or they realize they forgot to fill out a new registration after moving a few months ago (young people tend to move more frequently), or perhaps they forgot to fill out their absentee ballot when home for college break, or their class/work schedule is just too busy to allow them to take the time to vote.

This is how it is, folks and this is how it will always be, at least for the foreseeable future.  If Obama is depending on the Rock the Vote crowd, then Hillary has this one in the bag. 

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2 Comments

  1. Posted March 5, 2008 at 3:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I get the feeling the young have been hopping onto Obama’s bandwagon now just because it’s the “cool” thing to do, but when push comes to shove, they won’t care enough to act. Which is a shame–even though it helps Hillary, and I want her to be Prez.

  2. Posted March 5, 2008 at 4:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Exactly … the bandwagon effect has been more evident in this race than any in the past 50 years (that I know of). People in their 20’s and 30’s like to hear about “change” and “united America” and fairy tale buzzwords, but not enough that they will all turnout to actually vote.

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